Will the US Get Hit with a Recession in 2024?

Experts debate the likelihood of a 2024 US recession, analyzing factors like the yield curve and consumer confidence. Predictions vary, with a focus on interest rates and tech layoffs impacting the economy’s future.

By Brad Nakase, Attorney

Email  |  Call (888) 600-8654

Have a quick question? I answered nearly 1500 FAQs.

Many experts are predicting that the US is likely to get hit with a recession in 2024, so the question on everybody’s lips is when will the recession hit? Let’s take a look at the circumstances currently affecting the economy to see when the recession is likely to hit and what kind of impact it is likely to have on the US economy.

Why Do Experts Think a Recession will Hit in 2024?

Economists look at a number of factors when predicting the likelihood of the US economy going into recession. One of the factors they look at is the yield curve. The yield curve is the relationship between short-term and long-term investment yields. When there is an inverted yield curve, it means that consumers believe that short-term investments are riskier than long-term investments. This indicates a short-term lack of consumer confidence, which is a fairly good predictor of a recession. It is not 100% accurate, but it is seen as one of the best predictors of a recession because it tracks consumer sentiment. Currently, the yield curve indicates a 61% likelihood of a recession hitting the US in 2024.

But when will the recession hit?

It is difficult to say exactly. The Federal Reserve has been increasing interest rates in order to reduce inflation. Sometimes, that can trigger a recession. Economists are mixed on whether this will or won’t cause a recession. However, it is a factor at play.

Another factor that could cause a recession is the recent tech layoffs and corporate defaults that have been sweeping the US. Increased unemployment rates are both a symptom of a recession and a cause of recession. So far, many of the laid-off tech professionals have found other jobs, so luckily, the layoffs haven’t impacted the US unemployment rate.

Consumer debt in the US has also hit an all-time high of $17 trillion dollars. This paired with high interest rates seems to indicate that the answer to when will the recession hit is soon. 84% of US CEOs are anticipating a recession will hit in the next 12 months. Economists are split, with only 48% saying that a recession will hit the US in 2024.

Will the 2024 Recession Be a Bad Recession?

The good news is that the economists who are predicting a recession in 2024 are predicting that it will be a mild recession. The Federal Reserve is on track to hit its goals for inflation, and therefore, it will soon level out the interest rates, which will put less pressure on the economy.

Consumers are cautious, but they are still borrowing money for spending. We would expect consumer spending to slow considerably ahead of a recession. So far, demand is still high enough that companies are keeping up with their usual levels of production.

There is always the possibility that unexpected circumstances could cause the recession to hit sooner or worsen the impact of the recession. There are wars in Europe which could threaten supply chains, but so far the impact to US production and imports has been minimal.

Any predictions made about when will the recession hit or how bad will the 2024 recession be are educated guesses. Economists look at historical patterns and the circumstances to make predictions, but there is no way of knowing ahead of time.

Have a quick question? We answered nearly 2000 FAQs.

See all blogs: Business | Corporate | Employment Law

Most recent blogs:

What is a default judgment

What is a default judgment

A default judgment is issued when a defendant fails to respond to a lawsuit, allowing the plaintiff to win by default. Understanding this process is crucial for both parties involved in litigation.
What is a quitclaim deed

What is a quitclaim deed

Quitclaim deeds offer a quick way to transfer property ownership without guarantees, distinct from warranty deeds. Ideal for non-sale property transfers among family or into trusts, they require careful legal consideration.
Sole Proprietorship Business License

Sole Proprietorship Business License

Sole proprietorships offer simplicity and fewer formalities for new business owners, with benefits like no separate taxes. Remember, personal and business assets aren't distinct, impacting liabilities and the need for proper licensing.
What is the most important part of your business plan

What is the most important part of your business plan

The executive summary shines as the pivotal element of a business plan, serving as a decisive factor for readers to delve deeper. A comprehensive guide on crafting an impactful business plan, focusing on unique strategies and essential components.
Easy Businesses To Start

Easy Businesses To Start

Unleash your entrepreneurial spirit with these straightforward home-based business ideas, from e-commerce to creative pursuits. Embrace the flexibility and potential for financial independence with diverse options suited for various interests and investment levels.
What is the standard deduction

What is the standard deduction

Understand the IRS standard deduction, a straightforward option for reducing taxable income without needing detailed documentation. Delve into eligibility, amounts for 2023-2024, and considerations for itemizing versus standard deduction.
How to get a business license

How to get a business license

Grasp the essentials of obtaining a business license in California, focusing on local and state-level requirements. Uncover specifics on when and why different types of business licenses are needed.
Why Do Businesses Fail

Why Do Businesses Fail

Uncover the key factors contributing to small business challenges, including financial obstacles, inadequate management, and flawed marketing strategies. Understand the role of a comprehensive business plan in ensuring long-term success.
What is a BOC 3

What is a BOC 3

Understand the essentials of a BOC-3 filing for transportation businesses in California, detailing the designation of process agents for FMCSA certification. Learn the requirements, costs, and benefits of choosing the right process agent for your business.
Standard deduction vs itemized deduction

Standard Deduction vs Itemized Deduction

Understand the key differences between standard and itemized deductions to effectively reduce your taxable income and potentially save on taxes. Choose wisely to maximize your tax benefits based on personal financial details.
How to calculate net income

How to calculate net income

Unveil the significance of calculating net income for business profitability, a key indicator for financial health and decision-making. Understand the formula and practical applications for determining net earnings.
Itemized deductions

Itemized Deductions

Optimize your tax return by understanding the differences between itemized and standard deductions, crucial for minimizing tax liability. Learn the benefits and challenges of itemizing to make informed financial decisions.
What are intangible assets

What Are Intangible Assets

Discover the value of intangible assets like patents and trademarks in your business, crucial for strategic and financial planning. Learn how to manage and amortize these non-physical yet essential resources.
What is accounting

What Is Accounting

Understand the importance of accounting in monitoring financial activities and making informed decisions for your business. Gain insight into accounting fundamentals and its role in legal and tax matters.
Dysfunctional family

Dysfunctional Family

Explore the impact of growing up in a dysfunctional family, where constant conflict, neglect, and various addictions shape childhood experiences. Understand common traits, the consequences on children, and the cycle of unhealthy parenting behaviors.
When Was the Great Recession

When Was the Great Recession?

Delve into the Great Recession's timeline, an era of financial distress from December 2007 to June 2009. Understand the causes, including the 2007 housing bubble crash, and worldwide effects.
When Was the Last Recession in the US

When Was the Last Recession in the US?

Review discussions on America's most recent downturn, comparing the impacts and definitions of Covid-19 and the Great Recession. Analyze the significant effects of past economic crises on US policy and business approaches.
What to Invest in During a Recession- 4 Ideas

What to Invest in During a Recession: 4 Ideas

Uncover effective strategies for investing during a recession, assessing personal goals and current market situations. Examine four robust investment approaches to manage through economic declines effectively.
Will the US Get Hit with a Recession in 2024

Will the US Get Hit with a Recession in 2024?

Experts debate the likelihood of a 2024 US recession, analyzing factors like the yield curve and consumer confidence. Predictions vary, with a focus on interest rates and tech layoffs impacting the economy's future.
How Long Do Recessions Last

How Long Do Recessions Last?

Learn about typical US recession lengths and influencing factors, noting recent trends with shorter durations averaging 10 months. Investigate how external factors and government decisions affect recession timelines, comparing historical data.
When Will the Recession End

When Will the Recession End?

Economists predict a mild US recession with limited impact on employment and spending. The duration and impact of the recession depend on Federal Reserve policies and business cycle patterns.

When not to sign a severance agreement?

Do not sign a severance agreement if you do not understand it. By agreeing to a severance agreement, you give up your right to sue your employer. Remember, it is possible to negotiate the terms of your severance package. You are not required to sign a severance agreement.

How Do You Deal with a Toxic Business Partner?

Address concerns directly to the bad business partner; communicate openly and clearly. Consider mediation or seek legal advice from a business dispute attorney. Document disagreements, consider amicable separation if necessary.

Contact our attorney.

Please tell us your story:

2 + 2 = ?